Reusse and Guentzel

Pat Reusse of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote a column about....brace yourself for this...how Don Lucia sucks.

And that's the problem. When every hockey article you write is about how terrible Don Lucia is, even when you're writing about somebody else, people are going to stop listening. Or at least they should stop listening.

As far as Guentzel, there is evidence that suggests he was forced out. Guentzel withdrew his name from consideration for the St. John's because, as he told the the St. Cloud Times, “With my situation right now, for various family and financial reasons, it just wasn’t the right time.” The whole "financial reasons" is what sticks out to me the most. I can't think of a financial reason for choosing to be unemployed over taking a job except for the rumor that Guentzel is still getting paid by Minnesota as part of being "forced out" and taking another job would cost him that.

So if he was forced out, why was he forced out? I don't agree with the premise that a change had to be made after Minnesota's disappointing season. But I do think that a disappointing season can expose some of the underlying tensions within a program, and I think that that tension got to the point where Don Lucia had to make a decision and somebody had to go. That shouldn't make Don Lucia a bad guy. He's the one that gets all the credit or all the blame. He's the one that faces constant pressure from fans. He's the one that gets ridiculous articles written about him by a columnist with an odd vendetta. So he should also have control over who is on his staff.

Larson Commits to Notre Dame

Waterloo Blackhawks forward Nick Larson committed to Notre Dame last week. Larson was one of the top remaining forwards available, and should be an NHL Draft Pick next month. He was rated 52nd among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting.

Larson is scheduled to join the Irish in 2009, though he could join the Irish next year if Notre Dame loses a forward to the pro ranks.

Duncan Staying

North Dakota forward and former Hobey Baker winner Ryan Duncan will be staying at North Dakota for his senior season.

It's hard to criticize someone for choosing to stay in school, but this still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I felt that Duncan would have been best served by leaving school last summer when his stock was at its highest, and with Jonathan Toews leaving for the NHL. Instead, he had nowhere to go but down last year, and even though he put up good numbers, his Hobey Baker-winning season the year prior ended up looking like the product of Jonathan Toews, and he probably cost himself a little bit of money in the process. The same could happen next year as well when he's no longer playing with T.J. Oshie.

Blashill Leaves Miami

Miami assistant coach Jeff Blashill will take over as head coach of the Indiana Ice of the USHL. He will also be the team's general manager.

Blashill has a lot of experience as an assistant coach, working four years with Ferris State and five with Miami, and now he will get his shot at running his own team.

Schueller Hired By St. John's

Bowling Green assistant coach Doug Schueller will be the next head coach at D-III St. John's.

Schueller is originally from Minnesota, and was once recruited by legendary St. John's coach John Harrington, before choosing to play at Bowling Green. Schueller began coaching at Bowling Green in 2006, and helped turn that program around by drawing a number of quality players from the USHL.

Kennedy Signing Soon?

Michigan State forward Tim Kennedy is one of the few top pro prospects in college hockey that hasn't signed an NHL contract yet this summer, but it looks like that could be coming soon.

This report from Buffalo says Kennedy's signing is imminent:

Regier said he will talk contract with prospect Tim Kennedy of South Buffalo either today or Thursday. The Michigan State junior is the final piece of the college trio the Sabres were eager to sign. The Sabres signed defense-man Chris Butler of Denver University last month.

Also today, Michigan State sent out a press release saying that recruit Mike Merrifield will be joining the Spartans next fall, as opposed to 2009. It looks like only a matter of time before we hear about Kennedy signing.

Linkorama

Miami's Nathan Davis and Minnesota's Evan Kauffmann both made the first team Jewish All-American team.

The NHL is basically putting their draft day media guide online this year, which is very informative. So far they've got profiles on the top 60 players up, and none have listed WCH as their favorite website. Yeah, like ESPN.com needs the exposure.

This was mostly a foregone conclusion after the draft, but Edmonton has already signed Michael St. Croix to a contract.

The education in the CIS is great, just don't look into it.

Mostly unrelated, but there was some kvetching about the APR. It's nice to know that college hockey was the one revenue-producing sport that doesn't have to worry about scholarship limitations. It helps that some of the smaller schools in college hockey are also great academic institutions.

Alaksa: It's Ferguson

Dallas Ferguson will be announced as the new head coach of Alaska at a press conference today, beating out Wisconsin assistant coach Kevin Patrick for the job.

Ferguson palyed for the Nanooks from 1992 to 1996 and has been an assistant coach there since 2004. He'll now get a shot to run the program at his alma mater.

USHL Draft

The USHL held their draft today. The results are here.

The first overall pick was former North Dakota Mike Forney who will be playing in the USHL for a year, and then returning to college, though it's not clear which college yet. Forney's career at North Dakota was derailed by a number of injuries after coming to school with high expectations. Forney probably would have been better off playing a year in the USHL before coming to North Dakota, and now it looks like he'll get a year in the USHL anyway.

Northern Michigan goalie Reid Ellingson was the second overall player selected by Green Bay. Ellingson showed promise in 9 games for Northern Michigan as a freshmen, but sophomore Brian Stewart saw the majority of the playing time, and another sophomore, Derek Janzen, also played in 7 games.

Recently released BU goalie Brett Bennett was also selected in the first round by the Indiana Ice.

The expansion Fargo Force had to give up their first three picks as compensation for receiving a number of players from the recently folded Ohio franchise, but the Force still ended up with a solid draft. They got three players already committed to colleges in Colton St. Clair, Corey Leivermann, and Johnie Searfoss. They also picked up a pretty good defenseman in Tom McCarthy, and also took a bit of a chance on talented '93 birthdate Shane McColgan. McColgan was recently selected by Kelowna of the WHL, and seems likely to sign there, but he can only play five games for them next year if he does sign, so perhaps he might see some time with the Force.

Guentzel to CC

Sioux Falls Stampede defenseman Gabe Guentzel committed to Colorado College for next season.

Guentzel is the son of former Minnesota assistant coach Mike Guentzel. Gabe played his high school hockey at Hill-Murray in Maplewood, Minnesota, before moving on to the Southern Minnesota Express of the NAHL, and then to the Sioux Falls Stamped of the USHL.

NHL Draft Prospect: Aaron Ness

I started this series last summer, profiling some of the top American prospects for the NHL Draft, and it seemed to go pretty well, so I thought I would continue it this year. First up is Roseau High School defenseman Aaron Ness.

Player: Aaron Ness
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 170 lbs.
Shoots: Left
CSB Mid-term: 35th
CSB Final Ranking: 27th

Aaron Ness has always been a hockey prodigy. His father, Jay Ness, was a star defenseman at Roseau High School and would later go on to play at the University of North Dakota and be drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks. When Aaron was five years old, his father moved the family from St. Cloud, Minnesota back to his hometown of Roseau, where Aaron became the star of an extremely talented group of young players in the town.

He first made a name for himself on the state and national level when he led Roseau to a record 7th state high school championship. In the final, he helped shut down Grand Rapids High School star, and eventual first round NHL draft pick, Pat White. Ness was named to the all-tournament team. Shortly after the tournament, Ness committed to the University of Minnesota, after being heavily recruited throughout the year by a number of top schools, including his father's alma mater, North Dakota. Over the summer, he played with the US U-18 team in Prague, and drew good reviews from the scouts in attendance.

Ness came into his draft year touted as one of the best prospects in the state. Over the summer, he was offered a spot on the NTDP U18, but declined, opting instead to stay close to home and help with his father's business. During the fall High School Elite League, Ness was one of the top performers, and helped lead his team to a first place finish in the National Invitational Tournament. He also played in a few games with the NTDP U18 team against college teams in the fall.

Going into the high school season, Ness made the decision to combine his junior and senior years of high school so that he could attend the University of Minnesota next season. The extra academic work didn't affect his performance on the ice, however, as Roseau went undefeated through the regular season, before falling in the state tournament semifinals to Hill-Murray. Because it was his final year of high school academically, Ness was eligible for Minnesota's Mr. Hockey Award, which he won after the high school season.

Ness' biggest strengths have always been his incredible hockey sense and excellent skating ability. He was coached by his father while growing up, and Ness plays like a coach's kid. Not only is he always aware of where he is supposed to be on the ice, but he is also aware of where everyone else is supposed to be. He sees the ice well and is excellent at distributing the puck. He has a very fluid, natural skating stride. His light frame allows him to have excellent agility, and his speed should only increase as he develops more muscle. Despite a small frame, Ness isn't afraid to play with a physical edge.

His weaknesses are pretty obvious to even the untrained eye. There aren't many players, especially defenseman, his size in the NHL. He'll need to add a lot of muscle to avoid being pushed around by bigger, stronger, players in the NHL. His shot from the point has been criticized as being very weak, though Ness is a very smart, efficient shooter. He's not likely to beat a goalie cleanly with his shot, but he is excellent at firing low, accurate shots through traffic that can get to the net. The other concern is that Hill-Murray played an extremely physical game against him in the state semifinal and seemed to throw him off his game a little bit.

At the NHL level, he likely projects to be a second-fourth defenseman that can quarterback a powerplay and rack up a ton of assists. His size may keep him from being a franchise defenseman, but if he can avoid injuries, his intelligence and savvy should help him have a long NHL career.

In most NHL Draft projections, Ness is usually in the late first round. I doubt there is that much agreement among the 30 NHL teams, however. Some teams will fall in love with his skating and off-the-charts hockey IQ and have him in the middle of the first round, and some teams will be scared off by his lack of size and have him much, much lower on their board. But the draft isn't done by committee, so all it takes is one team to fall in love with a player. That said, I think Ness will go a little higher in the draft than most people expect in the late 'teens to early 20s of the first round.

Quotable

Minnesota head coach Don Lucia said:“We couldn’t be more excited to have Aaron join our program. He’s a dynamic offensive defenseman who should be able to step right in and be in the mold of some of the great defensemen who have played here in the past.”

Roseau head coach Scott Oliver said: “I think that there are different ways to defend people and Aaron is going to defend people differently than obviously some other players will. He uses his quickness, his speed and his hand speed. He’s not going to be 6’2, 6’1 or even 6' tall, but Aaron is very, very explosive and pound for pound he’s probably the strongest player that we have in our program. And he hasn’t filled out yet but he will. Project him as a 21 or 22-year-old with his body type and what he’s able to do physically is going to be different than it is today. I just think that in time, he’s going to be able to answer those people who have a concern about his lack of size right now. I don’t see that being a problem or a concern in order for him to make it at the next level, I really don’t.”

In January, ISS wrote: "There is a lot of interest in this skilled puck-moving defenseman and rightfully so. While most NHL scouts were arriving back from the WJC in Sweden, more than a few could be seen at the Roseau High School game.
With about a dozen NHL scouts including ISS watching, Ness didn’t disappoint collecting two 'Highlight reel' assists. Plays above and beyond this level.
Electrifying! Best player on the ice. Excellent skater. Feet will be an asset. Potential star. This is a player to watch. You win with guys like this."

At the 2007 Select 17 Festival, WCH wrote: "Aaron Ness(Minnesota commit): The most mature hockey player at the camp. Sees and understands the game better than anybody. It’s starting to get to the point where his lack of size is a little more of an issue, but for the most part, he can skate well enough that it isn’t too much of a problem."

After the World U-18 tournament, The Draft Guy wrote:"He's got some power play abilites, but he's 5-10 160. Maybe better than Cade Fairchild if you compared the two. He has good quickness and agility, but he couldn't break rice paper with his shot. He's poised; a contain dman. He's really talented. He can't shoot, but he's quick and he can really distribute the puck well."

Further Reading


Dean Spiros of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune profiles Ness.

Ness is named Minnesota's Mr. Hockey.

Deuce by Definition profiles Ness, including a compilation of some of his Youtube highlights.

The Hockey News features Ness.

The Hockey News profiles Ness' trip to Russia with the US U18 team.

Oshie Signs

Andy Strickland of the website Hockey Buzz is reporting that North Dakota forward T.J. Oshie will be signing with the Blues tomorrow.

It's been expected that Oshie would sign with St. Louis ever since UND's season ended, and now that his school year is over, it looks like the deal will be made official.

New Commits

Mosinee HS(WI) defenseman Chase Drake committed to Wisconsin. He'll likely join the Badgers in two years.

Via Chris Heisenberg...

Cloquet HS(Minn.) defenseman David Brown committed to Providence. Brown got hot in the Section 7AA sectional tournament, scoring a number of goals to lead his team to the state tournament this past year. Providence has also recruit Minnesota high schoolers Rob Maloney and Matt Bergland.

Ohio(USHL) forward Rich Leitner committed to American International. Leitner is originally from the Los Angeles area.

Not So Fast, My Friend

WCH favorite Mike Emrick made a comment in the third period of last night's game between Detroit and Dallas that caught the attention of TNABACG.

Emrick was wondering aloud how Toby Petersen, a kid that played at Bloomington Jefferson HS just outside of Minneapolis, ended up going to Colorado College, rather than becoming a Gopher. The implication is that it's basically a given that the top players from the Twin Cities area will matriculate to the University of Minnesota, and ultimately on to the NHL.

It's a seemingly logical theory, except that it doesn't seem work in practice. It's undeniable that Minnesota gets basically their pick of the top-rated high school players from the Twin Cities, but the numbers look much different by the time you get to NHL alums. Out of the 25 players to hail from the Twin Cities and their suburbs that played at least one game in the NHL last season, only 6 are alums of the University of Minnesota, just slightly worse than one out of four.

Here's what the list looks like. (Note: I used Let's Play Hockey Magazine's list of former college players that played in the NHL, and used Hockeydb for hometowns. I don't have a specific definition for Twin Cities suburb, but basically Maple Grove, Hastings, Coon Rapids, and Blaine all made the cut; Red Wing didn't.)

Minnesota Alums
Jordan Leopold
Paul Martin
Barry Tallackson(The NHL lists him as from North Dakota, but Minnesota listed him as from St. Paul)
Kyle Okposo
Jeff Taffe
Erik Johnson

Non-Minnesota Alums
Andrew Alberts(Boston College)
Casey Borer(St. Cloud)
Tim Conboy(St. Cloud)
Bret Hedican(St. Cloud)
Joe Jensen(St. Cloud)
Dave Tanabe(Wisconsin)
Toby Petersen(Colorado College
Tom Gilbert(Wisconsin
Mark Parrish(St. Cloud)
Brandon Bochenski(North Dakota)
Josh Langfeld(Michigan)
Zach Parise(North Dakota)
Jack Hillen(Colorado College)
David Backes(Minnesota State)
Ryan Carter(Minnesota State)
Mike Lundin(Maine)
Matt Smaby(North Dakota)
Tom Preissing(Colorado College)(Born in Illinois, but grew up in Minnesota)
Tim Jackman(Minnesota State)(Born in North Dakota, but grew up in Minnesota)

It would make sense that the non-Minnesota alums list would be a little longer since there are so many players in the Twin Cities and Minnesota can only recruit so many, but it's kind of surprising that there is that big of a gap, considering Minnesota is starting with the better talent in nearly every case.

Wheeler Leaves Minnesota

Minnesota put out a press release today saying that Blake Wheeler has withdrawn from school at Minnesota, though he has not signed a contract with Phoenix yet. According to the release, Phoenix and Wheeler have 30 days to reach an agreement or else he will become a free agent.

Wheeler's departure was a bit of a foregone conclusion. He was one of the most talented players in college hockey last year, and could probably step right into Phoenix's lineup next season.

Alaska Coaching Finalists

Alaska interim head coach Dallas Ferguson and Wisconsin assistant coach Kevin Patrick are the two finalists to replace Doc DelCastillo as head coach at Alaska.

Kevin Patrick recently withdrew his name from consideration for the vacant head coaching position of the Green Bay Gamblers in the USHL to focus on this job.

Both coaches will participate in public forums this week, and athletic director Forrest Karr hopes to make a final decision by the end of next week.

If I had to take a guess, I think Ferguson will be the one named head coach. I'm not saying Patrick isn't qualified, because he most definitely is qualified to be a head coach somewhere, but I don't see him getting the job. During last year's coaching search, it seemed like there was a big push from locals/alums for a change in direction in the program, which probably helped DelCastillo get hired. But after the disaster of DelCastillo's one year(regardless of if you believe the speculation about why he left, the fact remains that he didn't leave a lot of friends behind when he left Alaska), I think there's going to pressure for Alaska to stay with "one of their own". That sounds like it has been the case so far with a lot of alumni throwing their support behind Ferguson.

Departure News

There hasn't been much in the way of signings in the past few weeks, but there has been some news.

Wisconsin defenseman Jamie McBain will be staying in Madison for one more year. That's pretty big news for Wisconsin, since McBain will be the only upperclassmen on the blueline for the Badgers next season. It's also probably a smart move on Carolina's part, because McBain should get a ton of ice time all situations for the Badgers.

Denver sophomore-to-be Tyler Bozak also confirmed that he will be staying in school next year. Normally, I wouldn't think it's a great idea for an undrafted free agent to turn down a contract offer after a great season like Bozak had, but in this case, it might not be a terrible idea. If Tyler Ruegsegger and Rhett Rakhshani return for Denver, the Pioneers should have the league's best scoring trio and Bozak could have a great year.

North Dakota's T.J. Oshie hasn't signed yet, but the Blues want him to sign. It seems pretty likely that Oshie will sign in the next week or two.

Minnesota's Blake Wheeler is negotiating with Phoenix, and it seems pretty likely that he'll also sign.

No Penalties in Hockey

The NCAA released their Academic Progress Rate scores for the 2006-2007 year. Men's hockey continued it's trend of being among the best sports in the NCAA in keeping its players on track to graduate. No NCAA teams will be subject to penalties or scholarship reductions due to their APR scores.

Alaska-Anchorage did fall below the minimum score of 925 with a 917 total, but isn't subject to penalties because "the team is performing better than the institution's general student body, or based on institutional, athletics, and student resources".

You can check each individual school here. I'm sure someone will put together a list of all the Division I programs, and when they do, I'll post it here. Brad Schlossman has the WCHA's totals.

Generally, I think the APR has been a great thing for NCAA hockey. It provides a strong incentive for teams to keep players on track to graduate, and these numbers show that hockey teams do an exceptional job of making sure their players get an education while they are in school.

Gerbe Signs

The most valuable player of this year's NCAA tournament, Nathan Gerbe, is forgoing his senior season to sign with the Buffalo Sabres. It's not surprising to see him sign, given that he was the most electric player in the NCAA last year, and the folks in Buffalo were hoping he would sign.

Buffalo has now signed Gerbe and Denver defenseman Chris Butler. The Sabres have also expressed interest in signing Michigan State forward Tim Kennedy.

Also, Boston University has let go of goalie Brett Bennett, who has struggled in his first two seasons at BU.

Alt Commits to Minnesota

Cretin-Derham Hall defenseman Mark Alt committed to Minnesota this past weekend.

He's the son of NFL lineman/Madden '97 Create-a-team staple John Alt(though the O-line was never that important since you couldn't run between the tackles anyway). Alt was the second overall selection by the Chicago Steel in last fall's USHL Future's Draft. He's a big kid, listed at 6'4", with a lot of potential.

OHL Draft

The OHL Draft was held yesterday. I left home about 8:45 yesterday morning with a few picks in the books and everything had gone pretty much as expected. But it looks like as soon as I left, everything went to hell. It's always interesting, to say the least.

It also bears mentioning that during last night's Kitchener-Belleville game, a Kitchener jersey got thrown over the glass after a game-ending fight, and was set on fire. A fight predictably ensued, which involved a 10-year-old getting punched in the face. A proud day for the OHL, indeed.

Anyway, on to the slightly less dirty business of the draft. The biggest news of the first round of the draft was Cam Fowler being drafted 17th overall by Windsor. The pre-draft conspiracy theory was that Kitchener needed a second round pick to complete a trade with another team, so they dropped Fowler to get that compensatory pick, and then possibly draft him later in the draft. I doubt that was ever the plan, I'm not even sure Fowler was on Kitchener's list, but it was an interesting rumor. Windsor stopped that from even being a possibility when they took Fowler in the first round of the draft. The Spits apparently felt they had a better chance of drawing Fowler since Fowler was originally born there, Windsor is much closer to his home in metro Detroit, and they have a pretty good team in a few years, led by OHL rookie of the year Taylor Hall and Ryan Ellis.

Fowler's family said he is definitely going back to the NTDP next year though. Who knows about the following year. There's no question he'd be playing against stronger, older, more developed competition at Notre Dame, but with it being his draft year, and Fowler having the chance to go incredibly high in the NHL draft, his chances might be better if he dominates against weaker competition.

As for the rest of the first round, you can probably assume that most have deals in place. Saginaw was obviously able to work out some sort of deal with Brandon Saad. The same can probably be said for Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Skinner, and Tyler Seguin. The other interesting name in the first round was Christian Thomas, son of NHLer Steve Thomas. I had heard Thomas was definitely playing Jr. A next year, but it looks like London has or will get him to sign a deal.

The second round was also an interesting one with Zac Dalpe being picked by Plymouth. It sounds like London had a deal worked out to sign him as a free agent, so a number of teams added him to their list to keep him away from the Knights. Plymouth took a chance on Dalpe and will try to get him to sign. I don't think he'll sign, but it's impossible to know for sure. UMass recruit John Carlson was also selected in the second round by London.

Three other Americans were taken late in the second round. Austin Watson was selected by Windsor, John Parker by Saginaw, and Matt Krug by Owen Sound. That's probably early enough that all three guys are safe bets to play in the OHL.

Alex Aleardi went to Kitchener in the third round, and will probably sign with them. Michigan recruit Jon Merrill was selected by Plymouth, and the Whalers, being in southeastern Michigan, probably has the best shot at signing him. Pittsburgh's Stephen Johns was selected by Windsor.

Getting into the fourth round, the kids drafted here aren't likely to get signed by the OHL right away. Chase Balisy was selected by London. I think he'll play a year in the USHL or with the NTDP, but I have a feeling that if London really wants him, they'll get him.

Windsor probably had the most interesting draft. If they get even some of the kids they drafted early, they should have a pretty good team, and I doubt they took a gamble on so many picks, so I think they'll ending up signing at least a few.

WHL Draft

The WHL held their Bantam Draft yesterday. Burnaby's Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was the first overall pick by Red Deer. Nugent-Hopkins had briefly considered the NCAA-route, but as it got closer to draft time, his stock really increased.

Los Angeles' Shane McColgan was the first American selected at 13th overall by Kelowna. It sounds like Kelowna was one of the teams McColgan was interested in playing for and he will sign with them.

The next American wasn't selected until 63rd overall, when Portland took Dallas' Cason Hohmann. Fellow Texan Colin Jacobs was taken in the 4th round, 67th overall by Seattle. Both players were projected as first round picks, so that represents a fairly significant drop, though both were selected by American teams, which would probably have a slightly better chance of signing them.

Idahoan Tanner Mort was selected 87th overall by Spokane. He was probably one of the few players in the draft already with junior experience. He played 14 games in the Northern Pacific Junior League with his older brother Tyler for the Couer D'Alene Lakers.

New Prague's Seth Ambroz was the only Minnesotan selected at 146 by Seattle. And defenseman Dillon Simpson, son of former NHLer Craig Simpson, fell to 164th because of his family's history with the NCAA.

More on Dalpe

I had mentioned the possibility of Ohio State recruit Zac Dalpe being drafted into the OHL tomorrow, and got a couple interesting emails on his situation.

It seems that Dalpe has been pretty active in talking up and trying to recruit(in an unofficial capacity, of course) some of the younger talent in Ontario on behalf of Ohio State. So it would seem that he's pretty intent on going there.

That said, Ohio State head coach John Markell is on the hot seat in Columbus after a couple disappointing seasons and Dalpe's commitment to Ohio State is dependent on Markell being there as head coach. If Markell was let go over the summer, Dalpe may look to jump to the OHL. I doubt that what happen, however. I think Markell will get one more year, in part because of their strong freshman class last year, and the excellent class he's bringing in this year.

OHL Draft Preview

The OHL Draft takes places on Saturday, and it is always a pretty interesting event. Technically the players are picked on Saturday, but most of the first round of the draft is completed the week prior as teams and players jockey for leverage to get the best deal. Nothing rivals the OHL Draft in terms of rumors, innuendo, hollow promises, and backroom dealing.

We'll start with an OHL Mock Draft. The picks and commentary come courtesy of our resident OHL expert. Just to highlight how crazy the first round of this draft can be, there are two versions. The first is the 12pm Thursday edition. By 8pm, there were quite a few changes, which I'll list in parenthesis and italics under that pick.

1. Sudbury - John McFarland RC Toronto Jr. Canadians
- no suspense here

2. Erie - Greg McKegg LC Elgin-Middlesex Chiefs
- could go to an American, and are having trouble getting players to commit to them. Though they cannot afford not to have this pick show up after wasting picks on Brandon Maxwell and Riley Sheehan inside the top 50 last year.

3. Owen Sound- Steven Shipley LC Elgin-Middlesex Chiefs
- not a lot of suspense again.

4. Kingston- Erik Gudbranson RD Ottawa Jr. 67’s
- an absolute monster, only willing to report to clubs where he could continue his education in a French school. At 6’3”, great feet, huge mean streak, and HUGE offensive upside….could be the best pro the 1992 Ontario crop develops.


5. Peterborough Ryan Spooner LC Ottawa Jr. Senators
- small but totally electric.

6. Barrie Ryan O’Connor RD Toronto Jr. Canadians
- small but swift d-man with great offensive upside; will run the Colts power play for four seasons.


7. Ottawa Greg Sutch RW York-Simcoe Express
- Where things become VERY interesting; have heard Sutch all along though I would not be surprised to see Stephen Silas, Brock Beukeboom, or Tyler Mort go at this spot. We will stick with Sutch.

8. St. Mike’s Devante Smith-Pelly LC Toronto Jr. Canadians
- Could easily be Tyler Seguin, who is saying he will only report to certain teams, but Smith-Pelly has been the most improved player throughout the entire season, and the Majors staff loves him. He can create space for Jordan Mayer for years.

9. Plymouth Brandon Saad LW Pittsburgh Jr. Hornets
- A.J. [Jenks] meet your new left winger…..the lack of commitment to the USNTDP and Plymouth’s success in recruiting high end U.S. born talent make this a match makers delight. Could be Cody McNaughton if Saad does not work out.
(Switch this pick to Austin Watson RW Compuware)

10. Saginaw Cody McNaughton RW Toronto Jr. Canadians
- a hyper-competitive kid (over 250 PIM’s) who can also hurt you on the scoreboard.

11. Sarnia Tyler Toffoli RW Toronto Jr. Canadians
- Can’t imagine them passing on Seguin, but I will go with my gut on this one.

12. Guelph Philip Lane RC Rochester Alliance
- relationship here is through Ryan Callaghan, and the agent, Steve Bartlett. Has not yet committed to the USNTDP. IF not Lane then Seguin or Stephen Silas.
(Switch this pick to Freddie Hamilton RC Toronto Marlies)

13. London Brock Beukeboom RD Central Ontario Wolves
- son of Jeff Beukeboom, seems like a fit here. If [Michigan recruit Jon] Merrill gets picked, this is where it will happen.

14. Niagara Sam Carrick RC Toronto Red Wings
- A feisty competitor who will be extremely tough to play against, if his skating improves, could be a steal.

15. Brampton Freddie Hamilton RC Toronto Marlies
- could be a team that steps up on Jeff Skinner, but I am not certain. Hamilton is the easy fit, and a good all around player.
(Switch this pick to Tyler Seguin RC Toronto Young Nats)

16. Oshawa Alex Aleardi RC Detroit Compuware
- is coming to the league, though at his size it may not be the best decision. Oshawa may also like Jeff Braithwaite or Tyler Mort here. They’re downfall has been defence and goaltending the past few seasons.

17. Windsor Austin Watson RW Detroit Compuware
- too much deception here saying they will pick a defenceman – if it is a defenceman it would be Stephen Silas.
(Swtich this pick to Stephen Silas LD Halton Hurricanes)

18. Soo David Quesnele LW Soo North Stars
- A near certainty as he is a local kid and brother plays for the Soo. They need help up front and would fit the coaches’ style. Strong, tough, and can score.

19. Belleville Steven Beyers RC Halton Hurricanes
- good skater, with high level of skill.

20. Kitchener John Parker RC New Jersery Rockets
- have the resources and track record of convincing players to report. Given the alternatives .

That makes the first round look like this:
1. McFarland 2. McKegg 3. Shipley 4. Gudbranson 5. Spooner 6. O'Connor 7. Sutch 8. Smith-Pelley 9. Watson 10. McNaughton 11. Toffoli 12. Hamilton 13. Beukeboom 14. Carrick 15. Seguin 16. Aleardi 17. Silas 18. Quesnele 19. Beyers 20. Parker


As for some of the rumors and what-not that are out there...

Bob Miller of The Wolverine had a post on the OHL Draft. At this point, recruits Jared Knight and Jon Merrill are both committed to going to the NTDP. It seems pretty much definite that Knight will be playing in Ann Arbor next year. I haven't heard much about Merrill, but the lack of buzz is probably good news for Michigan.

Some prospects have been working on their epistolary skills this past week. Maine recruit Austin Watson has sent out a couple letters saying he is totally committed to the college route and won't report to whomever drafts him. The problem is that nobody believes him. It should help him end up on the team he wants too.

Another letter-writer is Toronto Young Nats forward Tyler Seguin. He sent out a letter to every team on Thursday saying that he would be exploring the NCAA route and not reporting to any OHL team. Odds are, it's another ploy to land with a specific OHL team. His route should be pretty clear based on where he is drafted.

Seguin's Young Nats teammate Jeff Skinner has also been rumored to be looking at the NCAA route. There were even some internet rumors of a college commitment, but I haven't been able to confirm anything. Again, probably the lower that he goes in the draft, the better. He's said he's not reporting to whomever drafts him, but the general opinion is that it's closer to 50/50.

Among some of the uncommitted American kids, the fact that Brandon Saad and Phil Lane dropped out of the projected first round sometime this afternoon is a promising sign. Alex Aleardi seems very likely to go to the OHL, either to Oshawa or Kitchener.

Paul Shaheen's Research on Ice Newsletter also had an OHL Mock Draft earlier this week. The top few picks were pretty much the same, but the later rounds were a little more interesting. Ohio State recruits Alex Lippincott and Zac Dalpe were in the first round, as well as UMass recruit John Carlson. I'd be surprised if anyone took Dalpe or Carlson that early though, since they'd most likely be banking on things going poorly for them in college.

While many north of the border like to brag about how players like Pat Kane, Peter Mueller, and Sam Gagner chose the CHL over the NCAA, that's not the whole story. Were it a straight decision between the two, all three would have likely gone the college route. But qualifying for the NCAA meant the additional baggage of extra time in junior hockey for all three, and ultimately, that was the tipping point in the CHL's favor. It's pretty rare that you see a player that has already completely high school choose the CHL over the NCAA, unless that players struggles(on the ice or in the classroom) at the college level.

That said, Dalpe is an Ontario native, so there may be the bonus of playing close to home for him. A lot will probably depend on which team drafts him.

There are some other Americans to keep an eye on in the draft as well. Apparently Erie really liked Pittsburgh defenseman Stephen Johns, but he's committed to the NTDP, and I don't think the Otters can risk having a top pick not show. I haven't heard Chase Balisy's name much this week. He'll still probably end in the OHL though.

Finally, no matter what happens, Kingston will find a way to screw things up and Neate Sager will be there to shake his head in frustration.

Luck for the Irish

I'm planning a big update on the OHL Draft for tomorrow, but this is worthy of its own post today.

The Kitchener Rangers have dropped Notre Dame recruit Cam Fowler from their protected list to ensure they get a second round compensation pick in Saturday's draft.

This ends a good deal of speculation that Fowler would be signing with the Rangers, and should probably come as a huge relief to Notre Dame fans. There's still the possibility of another team taking him the draft on Saturday and convincing him to sign, but it seems unlikely. NTDP forward Jeremy Morin is still property of the Rangers, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him playing there next season.