Friday, September 30, 2005

Game Report: A.J. Jenks

Michigan Hockey Net, one of the links on our sidebar, is currently exiled in Marquette, Michigan. That gave him a chance to make it to the 2005 Marquette Fall Classic and watch Detroit Honeybaked play against Philadelphia. It also gave him the opportunity to watch Michigan commit, and one of the top players in the class of 2008, A.J. Jenks.

To read MHNet's report on Jenks, you can click on this link.

Ryan Flynn Chooses Minnesota

Ryan Flynn, possibly the best remaining forward recruit for the class of 2006 has made his decision and chosen to play for the University of Minnesota.

While there were many rumors about where Flynn would go, including Wisconsin and out East, Flynn chose to stay close to home. Some people felt that Flynn had always wanted to play in the WCHA, and that if the Gophers came through with a scholarship offer, he would play there. It looks like those people were right.

For the Gophers, they land a suitable replacement after losing superstar forward Peter Mueller to the WHL. Flynn has the size of Mueller, and while he doesn't quite have the scoring ability, he can still put the puck in the net.

The attention of the recruiting world will now turn to Mike Forney, who is probably the top available forward left. With Minnesota landing Flynn, it's probably less likely that they'll get Forney, which might leave the door open for North Dakota.

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Recruiting Board Updates

Many more players have been added to the 2007 and 2008 recruiting boards. Most of the additions come from either Ontario or the USHL.

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

New Blogs to Mention

I've made an addition of three more blogs to the linkbar on the side.

The first, is the Bruce Ciskie Blog. In a massive oversight on my part, I forgot to add the blog of Duluth radio host Bruce Ciskie. Be sure to check it out in about a week for his massive WCHA preveiw. There should be some quality information there.

The website www.uafhockey.com, which for a decade now has been the best place to get information on Alaska-Fairbanks hockey, has taken a page out of Michigan College Hockey's book, and reconstituted itself in blog form at uafhockey.blogspot.com

Finally, Denver fan Damien Goddard, who some may remember as the big guy in the toga at the 2004 Frozen Four, has escaped the wrath of Hurricane Rita in Houston and emerged with our second Denver hockey blog.

More Recruiting News

After claiming that Boston University had received a commitment from 2007 prospect Sam Gagner, and then repeating that same rumor three days later, Inside Hockey East has retracted their statements regarding Gagner. I had said that I would wait to see how this rumor panned out before deciding how much credibility to assign them, and now it looks like they deserve very little. I'll leave them on the link sidebar, but I'd take whatever they have to say with a grain of salt. The sad thing is, they've probably got three times the readership of this blog.

Michigan Rivals board poster bmcgowan got a chance to see the NTDP U18 team play last night and posted his impressions. Basically, he said Minnesota recruit Erik Johnson was the best player on the ice, which isn't shocking, followed by Billy Sweatt, who should be a great player for Colorado College someday, and BU recruit Greg Squires. He also said that Pat Kane didn't do anything spectacular, but still had a decent game. He was a little less kind to Michigan commit Chris Summers, who apparently had an off night last night.

The recruitment of NTDP U18 forward Ryan Flynn seems to be the biggest recruiting story out there right now. I had originally posted the rumor that he was favoring Wisconsin over Minnesota and Boston College. It now looks like BC has pretty much dropped out of the mix and it will be a battle between Minnesota and Wisconsin for his services. Flynn will most likely make his decision during the early signing period in the second week of November.

The Gophers are busy fighting a two-front recruiting war. While they battle eastern neighbor Wisconsin for Ryan Flynn, they're also battling western neighbor North Dakota for the services of Thief River Falls Lincoln HS/Sioux Falls Stampede forward Mike Forney. An impressive Select 17 Festival performance earned Forney a partial scholarship offer to Minnesota. Right now, Forney is the starting quarterback for his high school's football team, and will join the Sioux Falls Stampede of the USHL when his season is over. I wouldn't expect an announcement from his him at least until the high school football season is over.

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

More on Nodl

In a previous post, I mentioned how Austrian-born forward Andreas Nodl started off the USHL season with a hat trick and an assist in his first game.

This flying start puts the 18 year old forward from Vienna easily on pace to pass last year's total of 16 points in his rookie season in the USHL. Last year was a bit of a struggle for Nodl. He only scored 16 points in 44 games, and had to miss some time to travel back to Austria for his grandfather's funeral, and to play for Austria in the U18 tournament.

Nodl will play a much larger role for the Sioux Falls Stampede this season as well. Last season, Nodl was overshadowed by talented forwards such as Tom Gorowsky, who will be playing for Wisconsin this season, and Justin Milo, who has committed to Cornell. This year, with those players gone, Nodl will be expected to shoulder more of the scoring load, especially while talented forward Mike Forney is off playing football for Thief River Falls High School.

If Nodl can continue scoring points for the Stampede, he could find himself with a D1 scholarship offer.

CCHA Media Day

Today was the CCHA's media day in Farmington Hills, Michigan.

There weren't too many surprises in the coaches and media polls. In fact, both polls were pretty similar. Ohio State was at the top of both polls, gaining first place votes from all 11 other coaches, and getting 45 of the 54 first place votes for the media. Michigan came in second in both polls and received 7 first place votes from the media. Northern came in third in both polls with one first place vote from the media. Michigan State followed them in fourth, also getting one first place vote. Apparently Jack Ebling decided to show up at Media Day.

You can check out both polls courtesy of the CCHA's website.

They also released the league's second annual pre-season all-conference teams. Again, not many surprises as they made some solid picks.

On the first team:

Forwards: T.J. Hensick, Scott Parse, Rod Pelly
Defense: Nathan Oystrick, Andy Greene
Goalie: Dave Caruso

On the second team:

Forwards: Brent Walton, Tom Fritsche, Bill Thomas
Defense: Nate Guenin, Matt Hunwick
Goalie: Dominic Vicari

Crazy Stat for the Day

If University of Denver forward Paul Statsny was skating 20 mph, and checked Alaska-Fairbanks forward Kyle Greentree, who was also traveling at mph, the resulting collision would produce enough energy to light a 60 Watt lightbulb for 2 minutes.

If Michigan defenseman Jack Johnson was skating at 30 mph and ran over Minnesota defenseman Chris Harrington, who was standing still, the resulting collision would light that same lightbulb for a minute and six seconds.

Monday, September 26, 2005

Speak of the Devil

One day after I posted about his success in the BCHL, Anchorage native Erik Felde has committed to play for Alaska-Anchorage in 2006. Not really much else to say as I covered Felde's situation in the previous post.

Landing the Anchorage native is a nice coup for head coach Dave Shyiak, who has traditionally recruited well in the BCHL. With Felde signed, his attention will likely turn to another Anchorage-native that is off to a good start in the BCHL, in forward Evan Trupp. Trupp has scored 6 points in 7 games with the Penticton Vees in his rookie season in the BCHL.

Sunday, September 25, 2005

Succeeding in a Foreign Land

Last season, Erik Felde, a combination wing/defenseman from Anchorage, Alaska. scored 31 points in 60 games with the Cedar Rapids Roughriders of the USHL. In the offseason, he made the decision to go to the BCHL as an import player and play with the Chilliwack Chiefs. So far, the decision seems to have paid off for Felde, who is currently 5th in the BCHL in scoring with 2 goals and 9 assists in 6 games, and is the only defenseman in the top 20 in scoring in the league.

Meanwhile, another import player is leading the USHL in scoring, albeit after only one weekend. Andreas Nodl, of Vienna, Austria had a hat trick in the third period and added an assist in Sioux Falls come from behind win over Lincoln in the first first game of the season. Nodl only scored 16 points all of last season with the Stampede

Friday, September 23, 2005

USHL Regular Season Kicks Off

Tonight is the opening night of the USHL's regular season, as the Green Bay Gamblers head to Chicago to take on the Steel.

Tonight will also mark the debut of Eric Gryba for the Green Bay Gamblers. Gryba played defenseman last year in midgets for the Saskatoon Contacts, but as is listed as a forward by the Gamblers. Either way, he's huge at 6'4" and 205 lbs.

Chris Heisenberg's blog had a good summation of Gryba's situation. Basically, Gryba tried to find a loophole in Hockey Canada's rule saying that midget age players can't play outside of their own province. Gryba appealed the situation, saying that he would be living with family members, but the appeal was denied, meaning Green Bay got to cash in on on their Futures draft pick.

Gryba is a top prospect that will draw a lot of attention from most of the big name schools, but is also a very good student, and could possibly end up attending an Ivy League school.

Thursday, September 22, 2005

More on Petrecki, Plus Some Good Old Fashioned Rumors

One of the things I didn't mention in the post below were the two western schools that were recruiting Nick Petrecki; Michigan and Wisconsin. While some saw Petrecki going to BC as a loss for these two schools, it should be noted each school already has a commitment from each of the top two defenseman for that year, Michigan with Tristan Llewellyn, and Wisconsin with Nigel Williams, and that each school has shown more interest in other defensive prospects for that class. Michigan's primary focus for the second defenseman in that class seems to be Kevin Shattenkirk, while Wisconsin seems to be going after Brendan Smith, who visited the campus this summer.

Now for the crazy internet rumors:

First off, Inside Hockey East, a relatively new blog focusing on Hockey East(duh), is claiming to have a rumor from an unnamed source that claims Sam Gagner will commit to Boston University. I'm still a little skeptical of the rumor just because of the unnamed source and relative newness of the blog, but they were the first to break the Petrecki story, so they may be on to something. If Gagner does choose BU, it would be a blow to many Gopher fans who penciled Gagner into the future lineup after stories of his family moving to Minnesota, where his father Dave, was a star for the North Stars.

An unfortunate corollary of that, however, is that ESPN will probably have to remind us that Sam is Dave's son 8000 times per broadcast in lieu of anything interesting like they did last year with Chris Bourque and his dad Ray. By the way, did you know that Chris Bourque is Ray Bourque's son? Can we go to a shot of Ray in the stands?

The other unsubstantiated internet rumor of the day comes from a Gopher Puck Live post from a poster called Jacky Robert that claims 2006 recruit Ryan Flynn has Wisconsin as a strong leader, followed by Minnesota, followed distantly by Boston College. Flynn is the top uncommitted forward left on the NTDP U18 team, and would be a huge signing for Wisconsin. I've gotta clean though. I have no clue how valid this rumor is, but I picked Flynn to go to Wisconsin for the Western College Hockey Pick'em Contest and I needed a little pick-me-up after being wrong about the whole Petrecki deal.

Petrecki Commits to Boston College

For those that love to laugh at me when I get predictions wrong, you've just received another opportunity. Nick Petrecki, one of the top defenseman for the class of 2007 has committed to Boston College for the 2007 season.

I had avoided putting Petrecki on the list of 2007 Top Prospects, because after being selected in the first round of the OHL draft last year, I was pretty convinced he would be playing with the Plymouth Whalers of the OHL, as this archived post indicates. Had Petrecki been added to the list, however, he probably would have came in at 6th overall among defenseman behind Tristan Llewellyn, Nigel Williams, Cade Fairchild, Brendan Smith, and Kevin Shattenkirk.

It should be noted, however, that while today is a very good day for Boston College, the battle is only half over. BC has taken the first step in getting him to commit to Boston College. The next step is getting him to actually show up on campus. 2007 is a long way away, and there is still the possibility that Petrecki could sign with the Whalers a la former Boston University commitment Matt Lashoff, who committed to BU before signing with the Kitchener Rangers and becoming a top NHL draft pick this past summer.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Recruiting Board Updates

I moved a bunch of names around on the 2007 recruiting board. I've also added 5 new forwards to the 2008 recruiting board, which brings us to a total of 19 names.

If you're interested in checking out the Recruiting Boards, the link is on the sidebar.

CCHA Recruits Off to Fast Start

Two players committed to attend CCHA schools in 2006 are off to fast starts this season, and are leading their junior leagues in scoring through the first two weeks of the season.

The first is Northern Michigan commit Matt Butcher. Butcher, who will turn 19 on New Year's Day, is in his third season in the BCHL with the Chilliwack Chiefs of the BCHL. He has three goals and six assists to lead the league with 9 points, two more than the second-place scorer. Butcher was recognized as the BCHL's Feature Player this week due to his performance.

In the AJHL, Western Michigan commit Mark Letestu leads the league in scoring by two points after posting four goals and eight assists in his first twelve games for the Bonnyville Pontiacs. Letestu is an older player, who will enter WMU next season as a 21 year old freshmen.

Also notable is that Denver commit, defenseman Cody Brookwell was named the BCHL's "Star Player" for September 13-15 after being named first star and second star in his team's two games that week. The award was a nice birthday present for Brookwell who celebrated his 19th birthday on September 14th. Brookwell has no goals, but five assists in four games this season, but at 6'4" 200 lbs., his tremendous size is more of an asset than his scoring ability.

Omaha Hits Up Scandinavia Again

Nebraska-Omaha has gotten a commitment from another overseas player.
Chris Heisenberg's Recruiting Page is reporting that the Mavericks have gotten a commitment from Aleksi Holmberg, who plays for HIFK Finland. The commitment looks to be for the 2007 season. Holmberg plays for the same team in Finland that incoming freshmen defenseman Juha Uotila played for. Omaha also has a commitment for 2009 from Norweigan player Fredrik Csisar, making three Scandinavian signings in the past year for Omaha.

UPDATE:

It seems that Holmberg's team traveled to the US to play some preseason games against USHL teams before the Buc Bowl. Here is his team's profile of him. As you can see, he is the team's captain, and goes by the nickname "Allu" I'm still working on translating the thing on the bottom, but it's slow going as Western College Hockey only has a Norwegian Translator and no Finnish Translator. So far though, I've got that the first word is "Experienced" If anybody can translate that for me, I'd love to know what it says.

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Fairbanks Lands Older Knelsen

The University of Alaska-Fairbanks got a commitment for 2007 today from Brandon Knelsen of Drumheller in the AJHL. Knelsen is an '87 born forward who has gotten off to a fast start in his first year in the AJHL by scoring 8 points in his team's first 5 games.

While Knelsen looks to be a decent player, the bigger implication for the Nanooks is that it will possibly give them a leg up on the rest of college hockey for Brandon's younger brother, Dion, an '89 forward that is also starting his first season with Drumheller in the AJHL, and has scored 9 points in 5 games playing on a line with his brother. Dion is currently ranked as the 16th best uncommitted forward for the class of 2007 by Western College Hockey on the 2007 Recruiting Board.

Fairbanks now has two commitments for the class of 2007, both from Alberta in Knelsen, and Drayton Valley forward Jeff Lee. Lee struggled last year in Drayton Valley as one of the youngest players in the league, but is also off to a fast start year, tallying a goal and five assists in his team's first 5 games.

Looking for Scouting Reports

Though the college hockey season doesn't start for a couple weeks, some of the junior leagues are starting their seasons. Since I'm going to try to follow the recruiting trail throughout the season, if anyone gets the opportunity to watch one of the players listed on either the 2007 or 2008 Recruiting Board, and wants to send me a scouting report, I will be more than happy to post it for everyone to see.

I'm going to try to catch as many junior games as I can as well, though I may be limited to only seeing a few Shattuck games, and the NTDP play.

Monday, September 19, 2005

The Importance of the First Goal of the Game

Anyone who watches ESPN, or listens to sports radio, or reads sports websites knows the amount of time and effort that gets put into analyzing football games and trying to come up with a prediction of who will win. Of course, what you rarely hear from these talking heads is that the team that has the better turnover margin is going to win the game the vast majority of the time. Plain and simple.

That got me thinking, does a similar stat exist in college hockey? I decided to begin the quest by going back to an old debate I had heard once of which is the more important goal, the first goal of the game or the second goal of the game?

To answer that question, I went to last season’s WCHA composite schedule and looked at the box score for every conference game. I compared who scored the first two goals of each game to who actually won the game. Here’s what I found.

First of all, it shouldn’t be surprising that teams did very well when scoring the first two goals of the game. What I did find a little surprising was how much of an advantage it was. Teams that scored the first two goals of the game had a 47-3-3 record, which is good for a winning percentage of 91.5%. It should also be noted that two of those three losses happened very early in the season. So even though it may not seem like it at times, a 2-0 lead in the WCHA is about as close to insurmountable as you’re going to get.

The more interesting stat, in my opinion, is what happened when each team scores one of the first two goals. In situations where the score was tied 1-1, the team that had scored the first goal of the game had a record of 41-26-10, which is good for a winning percentage of 60%. That’s not a mind-blowing stat, but conventional logic would dictate that the team that scored the second goal of the game would have the momentum and would be more likely to go on to win the game. Instead, what this data indicates is that the team that starts out with the lead has the advantage.

If you combine the two together, the team that scored the first goal of the game won 68% of the time, and managed to get at least a tie 77% of the time. The team that scored the second goal of the game only won 56% of the time, and managed at least a tie 67% of the time.

Though there’s not a huge disparity in those numbers and it’s not a very large sampling of games, I do think it shows the important of scoring the first goal of the hockey game.

The WCHA's Key Players

Here is Part 2 of my look at the players each team needs to step up in order to have a successful season. Today's focus is on the WCHA.

Marty Sertich, Colorado College

Why so important?: Marty Sertich's emergence as the top player in college hockey last season was one of the primary reasons that Colorado College went from the middle of the pack in the WCHA to competing for first place in the WCHA. Now, as the first returing Hobey Baker winner in many years, the pressure will be on Sertich to maintain the level of success he had last year or CC faces a drop in the standings.

Matt Smaby, North Dakota

Why so important?: Smaby is a talented defenseman, but in his first two seasons, he was only the third best Matt playing defense for the Sioux. Now, with Matt Jones and Matt Greene gone, the focus will be on Smaby, who will need to carry the Sioux defense if the talented freshmen quartet of Zach Jones, Taylor Chorney, Brian Lee, and Joe Finley struggle in their freshmen season.

Mason Raymond, Minnesota-Duluth

Why so important?: While some other incoming freshmen have been give more attention, Raymond could make the most significant impact. He should be able to step in and help the Bulldogs right away. Duluth will need his help as they look for someone to fill the void left by Evan Schwabe and Marco Peluso.

Shea Hamilton, Alaska-Anchorage

Why so important?: Anchorage is already solid in goal with Nathan Lawson, and their hard-working team attitude keeps them in a lot of games. Now all they need to someone to emerge as a consistent scorer. Hamilton played well as a freshmen and could be due for a breakout year as a sophmore.

Billy Hengen, St. Cloud State

Why so important?: The Huskies are going to be a very good defensive team this year, but they lack the top-notch goal scorers that they've had in the past. Hengen was expected to be that player by his senior year. Now is the time for him to step up. Hengen did score points for the Huskies last year, but half of his 22 points came over a four game stretch against Princeton, Yale, and a series against Michigan Tech. Add the three assists he posted against Sacred Heart and the majority of his points came against weak competition. The Huskies will need Hengen to show up in WCHA play this year or they risk their first ever 10th place finish.

Brock Becker, Minnesota State-Mankato

Why so important?: Becker is a talented player, with great skating ability, but last season, injuries combined with a propensity to take dumb penalties cut down on his effectiveness. If he avoids both of those this year, he could transform the Mavericks first line of Travis Morin and David Backes from a good line to a great line.

Chris Harrington, Minnesota

Why so important?: Chris Harrington was expected to be the next in a long line of talented two-way defenseman for the Gophers. Last year was a bit of a step backwards for Harrington though, as he seemed more interested in running around the ice hacking at opposing players than playing sound fundamental defense. While Alex Goligoski, Derek Peltier, and Nate Hagemo should all be better as sophmores, the Gophers blueline isn't as deep as their forwards, and they will need Harrington to go back to basics and do his job night in and night out.

Michael-Lee Teslak, Robbie Nolan, Michigan Tech

Why so important?: Whichever freshmen goalie wins the starting job for Michigan Tech will have a difficult task in trying to hold the less-talented Huskies in games next year. Tech may not match up on paper with a lot of WCHA teams, but if they can get great goaltending performances, they may be able to steal enough games to not finish in last place in the WCHA.

Andrew Thomas, Denver

Why so important?: Last season, Thomas got to slowly adjust to the rigors of playing college hockey. With the number of talented upperclassmen Denver has on the blueline, Thomas played a much more limited role for the Denver defense. Most of his teammates on the blueline this season won't have that luxury. With potentially four of the Pioneers six starting defenseman being freshmen, the Pioneers will need Thomas to make the move up to the team's second defenseman behind Matt Carle. Thomas has shown a great deal of potential at Denver, but this season will show how good he really is.

Andrew Joudrey, Wisconsin

Why so important?: By the end of last season, Joe Pavelski, Robbie Earl, and Adam Burish were the only Badgers that were scoring goals. This season, there are a lot of expectations being placed on the Badgers, and for them to go as far as they would like, they are going to need more than just one line scoring goals.

Friday, September 16, 2005

The CCHA's Key Players

Every team has a couple players that they need to exceed expectations in order to have a good season. I've picked one player from each CCHA team that I think will be crucial to the success of his team. Tomorrow: The WCHA's Key Players.

Jimmy Spratt, Bowling Green

Why so important?: Spratt has the job of replacing one of the best goalies in the CCHA in Jordan Sigalat. There's a ton of pressure on Spratt because BG has been rebuilding for years now, and now that they've got a decent team, they want to capitalize on it. BG will have to rely on Spratt because back-up Bob Horrell did not play well last year.

Nathan Fornataro, Alaska-Fairbanks

Why so important: Fairbanks lost defenseman Corbin Schmidt to graduation. Fornataro will have to handle the move up to being the team's top defenseman and logging a lot of ice time, especially if Jordan Hendry isn't the same after his knee surgery last season, and freshmen Tyler Eckford struggles out of the gate.

Ryan Jones, Miami of Ohio

Why so important?: Miami should have a talented first line this year with Matt Christie, Marty Guerin, and Nathan Davis. The key for the RedHawks will be finding a serviceable second line that can contribute goals. Jones will be the guy they look to score those goals.

Jeff Rainville, Lake Superior

Why so important?:
This article from insidecollegehockey.com quotes new head coach Jim Roque as saying Rainville is the best offensive talent on the Lakers, who will desperately need offensive this season.

Jason Bailey, Michigan

Why so important?: This reflects my confidence in Billy Sauer and Chad Kolarik to offset Michigan's two biggest offseason losses more than anything. Michigan graduated a ton of size last year after losing 6'4" Eric Nystrom, 6'4" Jason Ryznar, and 6'3" David Moss, as well as the team's most physical player, Mike Brown. Bailey can correct those problems. He's a big forward that loves to finish checks along the boards. Michigan will need that physicality and Bailey will have to step up and perform against bigger competition than he's ever faced.

Jonathan Lupa, Western Michigan

Why so important?: Western Michigan is desperate for anybody that can play defense. Lupa is a big defenseman that wasn't spectacular as a freshmen, but could make a huge improvement in his sophmore year.

Corey Potter, Michigan State

Potter has proven that he has the talent to be a great defenseman. The problem is that undisciplined play as made him a bit forgotten. Michigan State is still relatively weak on defense, and need Potter to be on the ice for close to half the game, not in the penalty for close to half the game.

Mike Santorelli, Northern Michigan

Why so important?: With Tuomas Tarkki gone, Northern Michigan is going to need to find a way to score more goals than they did last year. One possible source will be sophmore Mike Santorelli. Santorelli stepped up last year and became the sniper on the powerplay. Northern will need him to provide more than 20 goals this season to have a chance at winning the CCHA this year.

Domenic Maiani, Ohio State

Why so important: Maiani is a talented player, and also a very hard-worker. He'll have to fill the shoes this year of JB Bittner who got the most out of his talent while at Ohio State. Maiani will also provide a nice secondary scoring threat after the line of Beaudoin-Fritsche-Pelley for the Buckeyes.

Joe Grimaldi, Nebraska-Omaha

Why so important?: With goalie Chris Holt leaving for the pros, Omaha is left with some pretty unappealing choices in goal. They'll have to go with whoever performs the best out of Eric Aarnio, Kris Tebbs, or late-signing freshmen Greg Barrett. Both Aarnio and Tebbs posted save percentages below 80% last year. Add to that that Omaha isn't particularly deep with blueline talent and there is a ton of pressure on sophmore Grimaldi to help carry the Mavericks defensively. Grimaldi was sensational as a freshman last season, but he might need to play even better this season for UNO to compete for a top spot in the CCHA this season.

Greg Rallo, Ferris State

Why so important?: With the graduation of Jeff Legue, Rallo will be moving up to the position of the team's top center. Rallo, who will be a senior this year, has never cracked the 30 point mark in his first three seasons. Ferris State's defense will be thin this season and they will have to break in two talented, but unproven goalies. They will need Rallo to step up and contribute close to 35 points this season to stay out of the basement.

Tim Wallace, Notre Dame

Why so important?: Defenseman Wes O'Neill is Notre Dame's leading returning scorer from last season. If O'Neill is leading the Irish in scoring at the end of this year, they will finish in last place again. Notre Dame needs someone to emerge as a scorer on their team, and senior Wallace could be the player to do it.

Western College Hockey's Hobey Watch List

I'm not quite sure why I bother posting about the award that annually goes to the best college hockey player with ties to the state of Minnesota, but I haven't really posted anything in over a week, and I need something to pass the time until the season starts a month from now, so I might as well.

I've taken a list of 15 players that could be in the running for the Hobey Baker this year and broken them down into three categories.

Category 1- Start Practicing Your Speech

Marty Sertich, Forward, Colorado College

Why he might win it: He did last year

Why he might not win it: He was so good last year that anything less might be considered a disappointment. It will be tough to match last year's performance.

Brett Sterling, Forward, Colorado College

Why he might win it: He'll score a ton a points and score lots of goals

Why he might not win it: Overshadowed by Sertich. It will be hard to lead his own team in scoring when Sertich racks up so many assists.

Dave Caruso, Goalie, Ohio State

Why he might win it: He'll be a very good goalie on a very good team. That's a recipe for eye-popping stats.

Why he might not win it: Only 2 goalies have won the Hobey Baker. One would guess that Caruso would have to put up better stats than Dave McKee did last year to beat out Sertich or Sterling. That's pretty unlikely.

Matt Carle, Defenseman, Denver

Why he might win it: He could be the best defensive-defenseman in the country, while being the highest scoring defenseman in the country.

Why he might not: He won't receive as much attention this year if Denver isn't as good as they were last year. Also, like last year, defenseman Reid Cashman may get the nod over him as smaller conference's token finalist.

T.J. Hensick, Forward, Michigan

Why he might win it: He's had two impressive seasons where he was too young for serious Hobey consideration. If he matches his first two years, he'll definitely be a finalist.

Why he might not: He loses teammate Jeff Tambellini on his wing. It's tough to imagine him outscoring the CC duo.

Category 2- Check Back in about 4 Months

Robbie Earl, Forward, Wisconsin

Why he might win it: Ranks with Brett Sterling as the most exciting goal-scorer in the country.

Why he might not: Wisconsin players have traditionally fared poorly in Hobey balloting. The school has only had 5 finalists in the award's history, and only 2 since 1992.

Gabe Gauthier, Forward, Denver

Why he might win it: Scores a lot of points, and scores them at important times.

Why he might not win it: Again, Denver may not be as good as last year. Also, it's hard to score important goals in the regular season.

Dan Irmen, Forward, Minnesota

Why he might win it: He's shown tremendous talent in his first two seasons. With the Gophers being loaded with talent, he's due for a breakout season.

Why he might not: He may have a difficult time standing out among his own team.

Phil Kessel, Forward, Minnesota

Why he might win it: He could quite possibly be the most talented player to play college hockey since the last freshmen to win the Hobey Baker.

Why he might not: He's only a freshmen. It will be difficult for him to live up to the hype in his first year.

David Backes, Forward, Minnesota State-Mankato

Why he might win it: He's the most complete hockey player in the west. If he leads MSU-M to a surprisingly high finish in the WCHA, he should be in contention for the award.

Why he might not: It woudl be difficult to win the award while playing for a team that finishes in the bottom half of their league.

Category 3- The Longshots

Scott Parse, Forward, Nebraska-Omaha

Why he might win it: The best player that nobody has ever heard of.

Why he might not win it: Nobdy has ever heard of him

Chris Conner, Forward, Michigan Tech

Why he might win it: Tech fans are so starved for any sort of success and recognition that they'll throw their whole weight behind support for Connner.

Why he might not: Though he's exciting to watch, he doesn't score that much, and he plays for a last place team.

Matt Christie, Forward, Miami of Ohio

Why he might win it: Definitely a longshot, but if Miami has a good year, Christie could have a season similar to 2003 finalist Derek Edwardson.

Why he might not: Injuries affected Miami's top line last year.

Drew Stafford, Forward, North Dakota

Why he might win it: He's improved a great deal since coming to North Dakota. The top forward for North Dakota is always going to have a fair amount of points.

Why he might not: He's got a long way to go to get to the top of the pecking order for WCHA forwards.

Tom Fritsche, Forward, Ohio State

Why he might win it: If he improves upon his freshmen season, he should finish towards the top of country in scoring, and be on one of the best teams in the country.

Why he might not: Too many assists and not enough goals.

Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Reposting the Fantasy College Hockey Board

(Note: With the Western version of the draft happening tonight, I've decided to repost this for everyone to see. There's been a few changes made since the original post, mostly involving players be taken off due to a jump to the pros. Best of luck.)


In a bold move, I’ve decided to release my Fantasy College Hockey draft board prior to the draft, in an attempt to aid my fellow GMs, and more importantly, shamelessly lure potential readers to my blog. Last year I was able to get away with scribbling a few names on a scrap piece of paper, but with 17 GMs in each league this year, as well as more people who follow the CCHA and WCHA playing, as well as the pressure of being the defending regular season champion, I figured a bit more research would be in order.

There’s just a few notes and warnings I want to get out of the way first:

1. This list probably isn’t all-encompassing. I’ve tried to make it as complete as possible, but I’ve probably left a few guys, especially from out East, off that deserve to be on here, so be careful.
2. These aren’t really rankings. There’s so many names that I had to sort of do this Chris Heisenberg-style. The bigger names are towards the top, but after that, the names are pretty much thrown on there. It’s really more of a guide to players you could draft
3. These are *my* rankings, so personal biases are in play here. For example, I’d never draft Chris Harrington under any circumstance, so he’s not on my list.
4. I’m not holding myself to just these players. I’ve tried to be as thorough as possible, but there’s the possibility that in the draft, something crazy might happen and I’ll end drafting someone not on the list. If I do, it’s not because I’m sand-bagging or anything. In fact, I don’t think I’ve compiled enough names to cover every draft pick.

I hope this list helps as a good start to the daunting task of picking a team. Best of luck to all the GMs this year.



Forwards

Marty Sertich- Colorado College
Brett Sterling- Colorado College
T.J. Hensick- Michigan
Gabe Gauthier- Denver
Robbie Earl- Wisconsin
Phil Kessel- Minnesota
Joe Pavelski- Wisconsin
Bill Thomas- Nebraska-Omaha
Scott Parse- Nebraska-Omaha
David Backes- Minnesota State, Mankato
Brent Walton- Western Michigan
Matt Moulson- Cornell
Dan Irmen- Minnesota
Tom Fritsche- Ohio State
Jack Skille- Wisconsin
Travis Zajac- North Dakota
Matt Christie- Miami
Drew Stafford- North Dakota
Jacob MikFlikier- New Hampshire
Rastislav Spirko- North Dakota
Paul Statsny- Denver
Rod Pelley- Ohio State
Chad Kolarik- Michigan
Pierre-Luc O’Brien- Sacred Heart
Marty Guerin- Miami
Tim Stapleton, Minnesota-Duluth
Marco Peluso- Minnesota-Duluth
Curtis Fraser- Alaska-Fairbanks
Dan Bertram- Boston College
Tyler Burton- Dartmouth
Dan Knapp- Ohio State
Domenic Maiani- Ohio State
Andrew Ebbett- Michigan
Daniel Winnik- New Hampshire
Brett Hemingway- New Hampshire
Ryan Potulny- Minnesota
Nathan Davis- Miami
Andrew Cogliano- Michigan
Ryan Carter-Minnesota State, Mankato
Travis Morin- Minnesota State
Jason Bloomingburg- Wayne State
Stavros Paskaris- Wayne State
Mike Howe- Minnesota
Jon Smyth- Colgate
Nick Johnson- Dartmouth
Mike Ouellette- Dartmouth
T.J. Trevelyan- St. Lawrence
Brian Boyle- Boston College
Darin Olver- Northern Michigan
Dustin Sproat- Princeton
Grant Goeckner-Zoeller- Princeton
Mike Santorelli- Northern Michigan
Elias Godoy- UMass-Lowell
Kirk MacDonald- RPI
Kevin Porter- Michigan
Bruce Mulherin- Alabama-Huntsville
Bryan Marshall- Nebraska-Omaha
Dirk Southern- Northern Michigan
Drew Miller- Michigan State
Colton Fretter- Michigan State
Jonathan Matsumoto- Bowling Green
Justin Abdelkader- Michigan State
Chris Conner- Michigan Tech
Alex Foster- Bowling Green
Derek Merkosky- Air Force
Joey Crabb- Colorado College
Ben Cottreau- Mercyhurst
Kevin Croxton- RPI
Ben Nelson- Quinnipiac
Brad Mills- Yale
Michel Leveille-Maine
Jimmy Kilpatrick- Colorado College
James Unger- Bowling Green
Kyle Greentree- Alaska-Fairbanks
Greg Moore- Maine
Brock Bradford- Boston College
Kelly Czuy- Alaska-Fairbanks
Ryan McLeod- Alaska-Fairbanks
Michael Gergen- Minnesota-Duluth
Rob Cirianni- Bemidji State
T.J. Oshie- North Dakota
Eric Ehn- Air Force
Bryan Lerg- Michigan State
Blake Wheeler- Minnesota

Defense

Matt Carle- Denver
Brian Yandle- New Hampshire
Reid Cashman- Quinnipiac
Nathan Oystrick- Northern Michigan
Jack Johnson- Michigan
Jamie Milam- Northern Michigan
Andy Greene- Miami
Sean Collins- New Hampshire
Dan Knapp-Nebraska-Omaha
Alex Goligoski- Minnesota
Brian Salcido- Colorado College
Matt Hunwick- Michigan
Justin Fletcher- St. Cloud State
Tom Gilbert- Wisconsin
Kyle Peto- Minnesota State
Lars Helminen- Michigan Tech
Brian Gineo- Air Force
Michael Hodgson- Bowling Green
Kyle Hood- Ohio State
Kyle Klubertanz- Wisconsin
Mike Campaner- Colgate
Dylan Reese- Harvard
Nate Guenin-Ohio State
Mike Lundin-Maine
Casey Borer- St. Cloud State
Andrew Thomas- Denver
Sasha Pokulok- Cornell
Taylor Chorney- North Dakota
Matt Niskanen- Minnesota-Duluth
Derek Peltier- Minnesota
T.J. Fast- Denver

Goalies

David McKee- Cornell
Dave Caruso- Ohio State
Cory Schneider- Boston College
Joe Fallon- Vermont
Adam D’Alba- Brown
Peter Vetri- UMass-Lowell
Wylie Rogers- Alaska-Fairbanks
Billy Sauer- Michigan
Matt Zaba- Colorado College
Dominic Vicari- Michigan State
Matt Climie- Bemidji State
Scott Munroe- Alabama-Huntsville
Peter Mannino- Denver
Brian Elliot- Wisconsin
Jordan Parise- North Dakota
Kellen Briggs- Minnesota
Jeff Frazee- Minnesota
Jeff VanNynatten- Niagara
Bobby Goepfert- St. Cloud State
Bill Zaniboni- Northern Michigan
Jimmy Spratt- Bowling Green
Justin Mrazek- Union
Jeff Jakaitis- Lake Superior State
Shane Connelly- Wisconsin
Phillippe Lamoreaux- North Dakota
Jeff Lerg- Michigan State
Ben Bishop- Maine
Charlie Effinger-Miami
Jeff Zatkoff-Miami
Nathan Lawson- Alaska-Anchorage
Chris Clark-Minnesota State
Noah Ruden- Michigan
Dan Tormey- Minnesota State
Derek Janzen-Northern Michigan

Friday, September 09, 2005

New links

I've found another good college hockey blog to add to the list of links on the side.

Pioneer Hockey is a blog devoted to the defending national champion Denver Pioneers maintained by Dubbie31. There's some pretty solid information there so far, and it really should pick up once the season starts. I recommend checking it out.

Update: After a little research, I've found a couple other good blogs that you should check out as well. Also, I've categorized the linkbar, and added some team fan sites.

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Recruiting Board Update

Once again, a bunch of new names on the 2007 and 2008 lists. Most of the names I added today were guys playing Minnesota High School hockey.

Also, I've tried to arrange the names on the board based on how I think they're ranked, so if you want to rip me, I'm sure there's tons of prime opportunities to do so.

7. University of Minnesota-Duluth

University of Minnesota-Duluth

Key losses: Evan Schwabe, F; Brett Hammond, F; Tim Hambly, F; Luke Stauffacher, F; Neil Petruic, D
Key Returnees: Tim Stapleton, F; Marco Peluso, F; Matt McKnight, F; Isaac Reichmuth, G
Key recruits: Matt Niskanen, D; Michael Gergen, F; Mason Raymond, F
Projected leading scorer: Tim Stapleton

Grades:

Offense: B-
Defense: B
Goalie: B-
Coaching: B

Analysis:

The past two seasons for Minnesota-Duluth have been very similar to the pattern followed by the Bulldogs of the CCHA. Two years ago, Duluth surprised everyone by finishing at the top of the WCHA, led by their senior superstar Junior Lessard, just as Ferris State had surprised everyone three years ago, led by their senior superstar Chris Kunitz. Both teams came into the following season with high expectations, but weren’t able to recover from the losses due to graduation and had disappointing bottom half finishes.

So where does UMD go from here? This will really be like a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs, starting with head coach Scott Sandelin. Sandelin’s stock was never higher going into last season. He won the Spencer Penrose Trophy as college hockey’s coach of the year, and was named head coach of the US World Junior team, after Dean Blais left for an NHL job. But a poor finish in the WCHA, and a disappointing finish at the World Juniors hurt the aura around Sandelin.

Sandelin will have the opportunity to rebuild with a talented young team. Duluth is bringing in one of the top recruiting classes in the country, and will need to rely on them heavily this year. They were dealt a blow this summer when hard-hitting winger Jared Boll wasn’t able to qualify, and left for Plymouth of the OHL. The Bulldogs still have a very deep and talented class, however, led by defenseman Matt Niskanen. Niskanen was a first round draft pick that should be able to log a lot of ice time this season. Duluth fans should enjoy watching him, though he may only be around for a season or two before the NHL comes calling. A number of forwards should be able to contribute immediately as well. Michael Gergen was a high scoring forward at Shattuck-St. Mary’s last year. They are also bringing in a pair of forwards from Alberta in Mason Raymond and MacGregor Sharp, who looked to be the most college-ready players in the AJHL last season.

One question mark surrounding Duluth is if they will have the ability to score enough goals to compete in the WCHA. They return two forwards that averaged a point per game last season in Tim Stapleton and Marco Peluso, but this year they will have to play without star linemate Evan Schwabe, who graduated. Duluth will need someone to step up and fill the void left by Schwabe.

The other major question for the Bulldogs will be in goal. Two years ago, Isaac Reichmuth looked like he would be one of the top goalies in the NCAA, but he never seemed to recover from his third period meltdown in the Frozen Four against Denver, and struggled much of last year, losing his starting job to Josh Johnson at times. Johnson is a decent goalie, but the Bulldogs will need Reichmuth to return to his 2003 form to help carry the team and keep them in games when they are overmatched against the top teams in the WCHA.

Overall, this should be a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. They should be a very good team down the road if they can keep the core of this team together, but for now, I don’t think they are talented or experienced enough to hold up in the WCHA.

Brett Bruneteau article

The USHL website put up an interesting article about 2007 Recruiting Board prospect Brett Bruneteau. Bruneteau's grandfather is a legend in the Omaha hockey community, and now after a stint at Shattuck-St. Mary's, Bruneteau is returning to continue the legacy.

Bruneteau's performance at the Select 16 Festival should allow him to just about wherever he wants for college, but it would certainly be nice if he ended up in his hometown of Omaha. Omaha is a growing hockey community, and with former Omaha native Jed Ortmeyer now playing in the NHL, and one of the top young college prospects, perhaps this will help increase interest in junior hockey in Nebraska.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

The Other Side's Argument

On his blog,
Chris Heisenberg pointed out an interesting article in the Red Deer Advocate about Red Deer's new coach, Brent Sutter. Sutter talks about a couple things in the article, mainly his displeasure with the new enforcement of the rules as the physical WHL tries to adjust to the crackdown on obstruction.

Admist his anger, Sutter manages to take a nice shot at US hockey fans:

"You can get away with this to a certain degree in the U.S., but you bring it into a hockey culture where the fans really know the game and they'll get tired of it," he said.

The article does gain something of substance towards the end though, when Sutter talks about Tri-City storm center Mario Lamoreaux. Lamoreaux is currently facing a decision that many talented players his age face. He can choose between a scholarship to play at the University of North Dakota in 2007, or he can play in the WHL with Red Deer this year.

Sutter goes on to outline the basic arguments in favor of the WHL:

"Here's a kid who as a 17-year-old would be one of our four centres, and yet he's chosen to stay and play at a lower level, which is junior A hockey. He does have a scholarship in place, but it won't take affect until he's 19 so for the next two years he'll play at a lower level. Is that what's good for him?


It all depends. The USHL is the premier college-feeder league in North America right now, so it's hard to imagine his development totally stagnating in the USHL. Sutter is right that Lamoreaux would receive some short term benefit from moving to the WHL. It also raises the question: Is living in Red Deer really what's good for anyone?

(EDIT: Upon further review, Red Deer looks to be a thriving metropolis. The city has recently transformed 48 Street into exciting Alexander Way, a "vibrant and pedestrian-friendly corridor" featuring banners *and* new signage! Both!!! There's also the promise of Alexander characters appearing where I'd least expect them, but since the place I'd least expect them to be is civilization, I'm guessing they're lying to me.)

"He has to decide how badly he wants to be a pro. If he wants to go to school then he should stay there and do that, but I'll still match our education policy with any NCAA scholarship. He could come here for four years and go to school if he doesn't play pro and continue to play hockey. The way things are shaping up now, he could be done playing at the age of 22.


The first line says it all. Grumpy old Canadian men have been trying to scare kids away from the NCAA for over 50 years now, by saying that their only hope of playing pro hockey is by going to Canada. The fact is, that argument doesn't hold water anymore. With 7 NCAA players being drafted in the first round, it's hard to argue that the decision to play college hockey will hurt their future at all. If Lamoreaux is an NHL talent, he will find a way into the NHL. The WHL may provide a faster route to the pros than college hockey, but it certainly doesn't make the path any easier.


So for all the talking that Sutter does, his basic argument is that maybe Lamoreaux will make it to the pros a couple years quicker if he chooses to play in the WHL. Not a huge deal, but these are the types of sales pitches that most young players recieve when trying to decide where to play hockey.

It also seems to be a recent trend that former NHLers are being handed the keys to CHL franchises and are being extremely aggressive in taking players out of the US. Patrick Roy in the QMJHL and The Hunter Brothers in the OHL are two that immediately come to mind.

While some people may shake their heads at college coaches going after the top high school freshmen and sophmores in the country, articles like this show what college coaches are up against and why they need to try and sway kids away from major junior hockey so early.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Recruiting Boards Updated

I've made a bunch of additions to the 2007 recruiting board, as well as a couple to the 2008 recruiting board.

By my count, there are now 58 names on the 2007 board, and 10 on the 2008 board.