Should I Stay or Should I Go?

The NHL lockout is over, or close to over, or something. I don’t really know. I hear announcements that it’s finally over every day, yet for some reason, I hear the same announcement the next day. It’s like they keep announcing it, hoping that one of these days someone will care. Regardless, it looks like it will get done officially sometime soon and that means that it will be open season once again on some of the top players in college hockey.

Insidecollegehockey.com published their annual list ofplayers most likely to sign pro contracts over the summer. I took a look at their list and here’s my opinion on those most likely to leave college early this summer.

David Backes, Minnesota State(St. Louis)

INCH makes it seem like he’s a lock to go, but I disagree. Backes is the consummate student athlete with a perfect grade point average in Electrical Engineering. He’s seemed very intent on playing all four years for the Mavericks. There’s always the possibility that he’ll leave, but I’d be very surprised if he didn’t.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Backes will stay and lead Minnesota State to a great season

Matt Carle, Denver(San Jose)

It’s hard to believe his stock would ever be higher after his great performance last year. If San Jose offers him the rookie maximum, it would probably make sense to leave since it’s not like he could make any more money with another year of school. I think Carle is ready for the NHL, as well.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Carle is gone. The rest of the WCHA will be relieved.

UPDATE: An anonymous tipster(no, it's not Karl Rove) that reads this blog emailed me and informed me that Matt Carle planned on returning to school at the end of last season. It remains to be seen if he'll feel the same way once the Sharks make him an offer. Certainly other players have committed to coming back at the end of the college season, and are in the pros by next fall. It wouldn't be a shock to see Carle pass on the Shark's offer and return to DU for his junior year.

Robbie Earl, Wisconsin(Toronto)

Earl is a very good player, but I don’t think he’s quite ready for the NHL with the type of game that he plays. He could use another year or two with Mike Eaves working on becoming a better defensive player. Plus, with the talent that the Badgers have returning, as well as coming in, Earl would be better served helping Wisconsin making a run in the NCAA tournament, which would really help his pro prospects.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Earl will commit to go Toronto and then back out at the last minute and stay at Wisconsin

Matt Greene, North Dakota(Edmonton)

Probably one of the most likely to go. North Dakota fans were pretty much expecting him to if the NHL ever came back. His physical style is more suited for the pro game. Plus, a change of scenery might help him move past his drunk driving arrest last year.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Greene will be inhabiting a whole new set of penalty boxes in the AHL

Al Montoya, Michigan(New York Rangers)

Michigan fans went through this saga last summer. Al says he’s still deciding, while coach Red Berenson was quoted as saying that he’s optimistic about Al’s situation. At the beginning of the summer, I thought it was probably 50/50 that Montoya would leave, but now, I’ll agree with The Great Jim Hunt and say the chances are probably 60/40 in favor of him leaving. Leaving and playing a year in the AHL may be the best decision for Montoya. If he stays at Michigan, he’ll be criticized for every goal, much like he was last year, and if he goes directly to the Rangers, he’ll have the same pressure, times ten from the New York media. If the Rangers end up winning the draft lottery and getting Sidney Crosby, that would ease the pressure on Montoya quite a bit as it would take much of the spotlight off of him.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Montoya leaves and they name a sandwich after him in Hartford

Ryan Potulny, Minnesota(Philadelphia)

I mentioned in an article for GopherPuckLive that I did how much Ryan Potulny disappeared towards the end of last season. I’ve said that I won’t be completely sold on Ryan Potulny until he proves he can play well for a whole season, and I have to think the Flyers will think along the same lines. I think they give him another year or two to prove that it was just a slump, and not a pattern. Besides, I think he’d be foolish to jump ship now because a year or two alongside Phil Kessel will earn him a lot of extra money.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Potulny will stay, average a point per game, and be 5th on the team in scoring.

Marty Sertich, Colorado College(Undrafted)

He wasn’t drafted, and will face an uphill climb trying to make it in the pros, but I have the feeling that some team trying to save some cash and desperate for players will make him a nice offer. Sertich’s stock will never be higher than it is, so it would probably be in his best interests to sign now.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Sertich catches on with an NHL team and goes on to have a nice NHL career.

Drew Stafford, North Dakota(Buffalo)

I can’t really think of a reason for him to leave. With Brady Murray leaving, he’ll be the Sioux’s go-to-guy. He’ll get a chance to develop for another year and make himself a more attractive pro prospect.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Stafford bucks the North Dakota trend and stays in school

Brett Sterling, Colorado College(Atlanta)

Atlanta General Manager Don Waddell has proven that he doesn’t mind letting college players develop while in college. He didn’t make a big push to sign Jim Slater, and has apparently said Atlanta doesn’t mind letting Northern Michigan defenseman Nathan Oystrick finish up his career in Marquette. I’m assuming he’ll let Sterling stay in CC one more year.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Sterling will stay. I won’t be able to pick him in the 4th round of my fantasy college hockey draft again

Mark Stuart, Colorado College(Boston)

Stuart really wants to play pro hockey and Boston would love a young defenseman that they can get for relatively cheap. It would be shocking if Stuart comes back for another year.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Stuart signs with Boston, but the Bruins infamous pencil as him spending most of the year in Providence.

Jeff Tambellini, Michigan(Los Angeles)

He may be the most ready for the NHL out of any of the forwards in college hockey. His speed and shot will make him a lot of money in the NHL some day, but I don’t think it will be next year. Tambellini has had opportunities to jump ship before, both with the NHL and WHL, and he’s seemed pretty intent on playing at Michigan.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Hobey Baker

Travis Zajac, North Dakota(New Jersey)

He had an excellent freshmen season, but he needs another year to prove that he can be one of the best players in college hockey. The Devils won’t be in any hurry to sign him either.

Western College Hockey’s Guess: Zajac improves upon his great freshmen season and bolts next summer