Friday, May 16, 2008

Duncan Staying

North Dakota forward and former Hobey Baker winner Ryan Duncan will be staying at North Dakota for his senior season.

It's hard to criticize someone for choosing to stay in school, but this still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I felt that Duncan would have been best served by leaving school last summer when his stock was at its highest, and with Jonathan Toews leaving for the NHL. Instead, he had nowhere to go but down last year, and even though he put up good numbers, his Hobey Baker-winning season the year prior ended up looking like the product of Jonathan Toews, and he probably cost himself a little bit of money in the process. The same could happen next year as well when he's no longer playing with T.J. Oshie.

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

I guess I'm a doubter, but I think Duncan was wise to stay.

Why? Sure, the decision cost him money, but that's about all it cost him. All eyes are on Gerbe for sure, but Peter Sejna was 5'6 or 5'7 and he only got a few games (half a season max over a bunch of seasons I'm guessing) in the NHL.

I just don't see Duncan being an NHL player. If that's the case, then why try to live a lifestyle that he's never destined to live?

Finish the degree, graduate, take what you can get and ride it out. Then, when that is over, go on with your life. Maybe he'll make the NHL. Maybe he won't. With that degree, though, it will just be something to put on the resume and share with his future children and grand children.

Anonymous said...

You're thinking about short term wealth for Duncan. Maybe he's thinking about developing himself as a player and person so he can have a good long hockey career, then can find a good job after his career is over using his college degree.

dggoddard said...

What good is leaving early without a degree and ending up in the ECHL? Even with a decent contract and bonuses you're better off with a degree and then taking your shot afterwards.

Props to Duncan and we'll all enjoy watching him next season.

Anonymous said...

agreed, I don't think he can put up the numbers next year and will lower his value.

Anonymous said...

Yeap...pretty risky stuff for an undrafted kid to pass on decent money (assuming the offers were there). Coupled with the fact that kids stick around during Summers taking a class or two, after 3 years he should be real close to being done with an undergrad anyways even if he is one that is serious about the degree. In the end, nice to see talented kids decide to stick around in college hockey, even if in this case it is not for my favorite team.

Anonymous said...

From the couple of short conversations I've had with Ryan it has seemed pretty clear his priorities are what is going to better serve him for the rest of his life rather than how can I make the most money on my first professional contract.

Anonymous said...

I agree it doesn't make much sense for him to stay. But honestly, isn't the damage already done?

He went from 31G 26A and 57 Pts the year Toews played to 18G 22A and 40 Pts this year. That's a decline of about 30%.

To maximize what he would have been offered he needed to leave when he won the Hobie. Now he'll likely have to settle for much less money whether he leaves over the Summer or waits until after next season. Hopefully he finishes his degree at least.

cvcl said...

Maybe the heat will be off him a bit next year and he can have another banner year. I'm with most of the good call anon writers here, especially 12:07.

Duncan was always going to be a four year player if you know him or his family at all.

Name me an small impact player other than Kariya that left early and did well. Hell St.Louis stayed four years and at Vermont for crying out loud.

Anonymous said...

If he is serious about getting an education then he could finish his degree during summers or at the end of his career. In any case it's his decision and it seems like he is making the one he wants to make.

Anonymous said...

"""Name me an small impact player other than Kariya that left early and did well."""

Very good point. I've been thinking the last 20 minutes and I still can't think of one.

Anonymous said...

Duncan's decision to stay is a wise one. Fact the facts: he's a nice player but has no future in the NHL. He knows it, the team knows it, and his family knows it. Thus getting his degree and preparing for life after hockey is the best way to go. For those wanting to compare him Gerbe, think again. I'm not a fan of either player or the teams they played for, but Gerbe's upside is far greater than Duncan's. Gerbe is a better skater, better with the puck, more tenacious/physical, the whole nine yeards.

Anonymous said...

I just don't see this guy having an NHL career. He reminds me of Jeff Panzer who was a great college player at UND but who never did crack the big leagues.

Kevin said...

"If he is serious about getting an education then he could finish his degree during summers or at the end of his career."

It really depends on his academic situation. In my experience, summer school classes are almost exclusively of introductory classes and general requirements. It could always be the case that he needs/wants to take upper level classes which are only offered during the traditional school terms (which would perpetually be in conflict with hockey).

Anonymous said...

Good for him for staying to get his degree but he will be hard pressed to match any numbers he's put up previously now that Oshie and Toews are gone.

Anonymous said...

If it were me in Duncan's shoes, I would have taken the money while I was hot. Colleges will be around forever and you can always go back and get your degree. However, you have to give the kid credit for sticking with what he believes in. I could see him jumping behind the Sioux bench as an assistant some day.

Anonymous said...

Duncan is very serious about his education. If that helps anyone.

Anonymous said...

Whoever owns and writes this blog knows nothing about what is best for another, especially if it regards hockey. Leave the thinking to Duncan and the posturing for the author of Western College Hockey. Good luck with your mentoring career.

Anonymous said...

all of you are forgetting that duncan i now the wcha leader in scoring could break teh iron man record set by porter and if he puts up another 57 point hobey season with david toews he would be 5th all time in scoring at und

Deejer said...

It's nice to see a quality player stay for 4 years...breath of fresh air if you ask me.

Anonymous said...

It reminds me of Tyler Hansborough staying another year. They really have nothing else to prove and have dominated at their current yet most analysts project project their play not translating well in the NBA and this case the NHL so they stay.

Anonymous said...

Duncan does have the most points returning that is true, but lets see how he does without Oshie or Toews on his line for once.
Interesting to note that the top 2 returning scorers in terms of points per game both play for SCSU.
Roe and Lasch are averaging 1.15 points per game and they don't play on the same line.
SCSU could be quite dangerous next year even with the loss of Nodl.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:58...Give me a double of what you're drinkin'

Anonymous said...

Police used tear gas to disperse a crowd at a large party near the campus of Michigan State University after fights broke out and officers were pelted with bottles and cans. Police said in a statement that 3,000 to 4,000 people had gathered for the Cedar Fest party late Saturday. They said 52 people were arrested and 48 others were ticketed for various offenses. Four fires were reported and windows were smashed on two police vehicles. "I don't see how we could have dispersed the crowd without tear gas," Police Chief Tom Wibert said Sunday.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:59...they were doing their best University of Minnesota impression.

Anonymous said...

What does a 2 month old party at Michigan State have to do with anything?

Anonymous said...

I would have to seriously question whoever Duncan's adviser is. Duncan messed up badly by not going pro the prior off-season. As somebody stated earlier, the damage has already been done. Then again, he will probably gain even less money next off-season when he can't use going back to college as a negotiating tool on the market. College free agents should learn a lesson from Duncan's mistakes. Sign when your stock is high. You can always go back and finish your last year in school. The contract money may never be there again. I'd hate to have dggoddard as an agent. You'd end up losing money in the long run.

Anonymous said...

"when he can't use going back to college as a negotiating tool on the market."

dumb comment, he wasn't drafted. Being a free agent supercedes everything. He can go to Team A, Team B, Team C, etc. Hell he could negotiate with one team that he likes the weather in one city better than the other to get more money from them.

Anonymous said...

Do any of you bumpkins realize that there isn't a huge difference between the money you get for a Duncan-like performance/career and what you get for being Toews?

The first contract in the NHL has limits ya know? It's what you do after you get to the show that makes you rich. Not what you get coming in.

Anonymous said...

So in other words it is all about money. If that is the case, then most players aspiring to that should play Major Junior.

Anonymous said...

I doubt Duncan will land a job with his North Dakota degree that pays any better than the signing bonus of even an entry level NHL contract. Yes the mega bucks come with the second contract, but the initial money is a hell of a lot better than the average college grad will make.

In the end, it's the kids choice and you have to assume he was properly informed about his choices. If he chose to stay in college to have fun and take another kick at the can...good for him and good for college hockey fans. Perhaps he left some money on the table instead of striking while the iorn was hot, but I'm guessing no one was offering him a rookie max contract either.

The Rink Rat said...

Anon 10:34,

"I doubt Duncan will land a job with his North Dakota degree that pays any better than the signing bonus of even an entry level NHL contract."

Per year, certainly.

However, the odds are that Duncan - regardless of whether he turns pro in 2008 or 2009 - will need to do something else to support himself once his hockey career is over. In that sense, getting his degree is more valuable than the signing bonus, which can't be any more than $85,000 (signing bonuses can be no more than 10 percent of the first year's salary, which is capped at $850,000).

$85,000 is a lot of money, granted. However, I think the degree is worth more over an extended period.

Ryan's doing the right thing, and more power to him.

Anonymous said...

Duncan had no choice, since he was never offered a contract. he is too small, and not skilled enough for a NHL team to give him a contract, and he never had any chance to get a signing bonus.