Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Michigan's Fast Start

Michigan is off to a fast start. Even though they're only third in the Western College Hockey Poll, they're ranked first in just about every other poll in the country. Brian at MGoBlog took a break from the hard-hitting football coverage, funny quips, and cute kitten pictures to provide a good look at last weekend for Michigan.

There's been a lot of positives about Michigan's fast start. T.J. Hensick is leading the country in scoring with 10 points in 4 games, followed closely by teammates Matt Hunwick, and Jack Johnson who are both in the top 4 in the country with scoring. Seventeen year old goalie Billy Sauer has also played exceptional, giving up 2 goals per game, and saving 92% of the shots he's faced.

On the surface, everything looks great for Michigan. But if you dig a little deeper, the numbers may show a few disturbing trends for the Wolverines.

First, for Michigan this season, one of the keys will be depth at defense. With Matt Hunwick and Jack Johnson forming the best defensive pairing in college hockey, Michigan will need someone else to step up and play defense when those two aren't on the ice. The two players that Michigan needed to fill that role were juniors Jason Dest and Tim Cook. So far on the season though, Dest and Cook each have a -3 +/- rating.

Another key to the Wolverines season is how their large freshmen class performs. The freshmen class has had some pleasant surprises, particularly forward Travis Turnbull and defenseman Mark Mitera, but the freshmen haven't been perfect so far.

Despite the team being a +23 on the season, Michigan has four freshmen forwards with a negative plus/minus rating. Andrew Cogliano and Tyler Swystun are both -2, while Jason Bailey and Brandon Naurato are each -1.

Michigan has started out great, but the fast start is as much a result of Hensick, Hunwick, and Johnson's amazing performance as anything. It's unrealistic to expect that they will continue to average two points per game for the rest of the season.(Even though I have a tough time believing anything is unrealistic for Jack Johnson at this point). Once those guys start to slow down, Michigan will need those other players to step up and help pick up the slack if they want to compete for the CCHA title this season.

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